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Scientist from the Wissenschaftler of Münster have analysed the statistics of the German Bundesliga thoroughly and could characterise a football match as a Poisson-Process and like that made football results calculable. The crucial finding of the scientists is that goals in football are a product of coincidence. Goals, however, aren’t a sole game of dice but are influenced by the technical abi𝔍lities of the players, the so called performance level, of both teams.
In the Bundesliga a typical outcome of match is de🔯termined of coincidence by 86%. 14% are no coincidence and distinct a top team from a potential relegation team.
St💜unning: All teams in the Bundesliga have about the same conversion of chances.
Home teams score more goals on average. Average 1,66 home and 1,20 away goals. There is an overall home advantage but no evidence that in addition to that teams perform espec♛ially well at home. Thus, home strength is a myth.
Typically 3 goals are scored i🌺n a match. To be precise, the number of goals ♍has decreased over time and now amounts to 2,8.
Rather not. 46 % of all wins are based upon a o♌ne-goal-margin.
No. Only about 25% of matches result ins draw. By implication 75% of ⛄matches hꦐave a winner!
Yes, but since the middle of the 80s, the numb🥂er of away wins is constantly getting bigger. While during the 70s distinctively more than 20% of matches resulted ins away win, that figure already amounted to 33% in the season of 2010/2011.
Extraordinary: On the last two 🔴matc🎶h days about 20% more goals are scored than on average. So: Bet on higher results!
The goal dif♓ferente of past matches is especially informative🔯 for the purpose of predictions. It is significantly more informative than the number of points. The expected amount of goals, on the other hand, is quite similar among all teams.
Goalscoring opportunities are a lot more i✃nformative for the sake of prognosis. Good teams show a slightly beജtter conversion.
The market value of a team as ꦛdetermined before the start of the season is extremely strongly correlated with their actual performance. Rule of thumb: Doubling of the market value = 10 additional points or a goal difference increased by 16 goals.
A season-specific average Performance level of a team does exist. (Performance level = goal difference🉐 that a t♈eam scores against an average opponent)
The coincidence averages out during the course of the season. The long🌳er the season has already progressed, the more reliable goals and opportunities display the performances꧂ of teams.
A football match💦 is dominated by effects of coincidence. Additional♏ly the performance level of offense and defense are correlated.
♚Without effects of coincidence, the difference of goalscoring opportunities would perfectly predict𒐪 the performance level.
The goal difference is deꦗtermined by effects of coincidence with 86% (match day) or 29% (season) on average.
Fluctuations of performance levels from match day to match day are, therefore, not statistically relevant. The changes of performances levels take place ౠduring the summer break and only rare
There are no positive series. The concept of a &ldqu🅰o;streak“ is, thus, void. Unfortunately this does not💦 apply for negative series - those do exist. As Andi Brehme famously put it: “When you got shit on your foot, you got shit on your foot!“
In the context of statistical preciseness, the conversion of effective goalscoring opportunities is identical for all teams. For that reason the goalscoring opportunities ar🅠e quite significant for the prediction of goals.
The performance of promoted teams is astonishingly well prede🥀termined. Significant deviations from the lower half of the table (goal difference: -13 +/- 8) are, thus, extremely rare. For that reason a „march through“ is ver🍬y special.
With the help of the market value and🦂 the effective differente of goalscoring opportunities you can come closer to the perfect prediction of the second half of t♈he season..
No. In fact only in half of the cases the best team wins and b💯e🅠comes German champion at the end of the season.
No. Statistically, there are no bogeyꦚ team. The scientist’s search for bogey teams was negative. Looking at it statistically the effect is under 10%.
Of course we know! But it is eno🍬ugh f🌼or today, we will let you know another rime.